Yesterday, I had a call with a client that is looking ahead and thinking about how his business should change if we enter a significant recession.  He’s waiting for the GDP numbers to be released in January like the townsfolk of Punxsutawney waiting for Phil to come out of his hole and look for his shadow.

Of the local agency owners I know here in Portland, two of them had significant growth this year and one of them significant losses. And in my own business, we saw revenue increase in 2022.

My friend who lost clients could be a harbinger or just another anomaly.

I’ve been in business almost fifteen years and market fluxations have never made much sense to me.  Even trends that seem strongly negative like Covid or the shrinking of newspapers have produced significant winners (e-commerce and large papers like The NY Times.)

With that said, whether or not we can anticipate market effects, we should be ready for them.

I have a couple of friends that serve the same market with a similar recurring payment model but with different products.  At the start of Covid, one of them made a plan on how they were going to prevent losing customers and one of them did not.  The one with the plan had 100% retention and the one without lost customers.

In terms of what should be in that plan, it’s going to vary with the situation.  But aims, obstacles, and options should be part of any plan.

Featured image is The Coming of Bride (1917) by John Duncan. The Groundhog Day celebration is rooted in a Celtic tradition of weather divination from hibernating animals that takes place at the goddess Brigid’s seasonal holiday of Imbolc. Used under public domain.